✎ 现货价格

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<a href="/doku.php?id=%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7" class="wikilink2" title="现货" rel="nofollow">现货</a><a href="/doku.php?id=%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC" class="wikilink2" title="价格" rel="nofollow">价格</a>是指<a href="/doku.php?id=%E5%95%86%E5%93%81" class="wikilink2" title="商品" rel="nofollow">商品</a>在<a href="/doku.php?id=%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93" class="wikilink1" title="现货交易">现货交易</a>中的<a href="/doku.php?id=%E6%88%90%E4%BA%A4%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC" class="wikilink2" title="成交价格" rel="nofollow">成交价格</a>，包括日前市场电价、实时市场电价。电力市场中的现货价格一般由竞争形成。
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<h2 class="page-header">现货价格买卖行为</h2>
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<a href="/doku.php?id=%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93" class="wikilink1" title="现货交易">现货交易</a>是一经成交立即交换的买卖行为，一般是买主即时付款，但也可以采取分期付款和一次性付款的方式。由于<a href="/doku.php?id=%E4%BB%98%E6%AC%BE%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F" class="wikilink2" title="付款方式" rel="nofollow">付款方式</a>的不同，同一<a href="/doku.php?id=%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7" class="wikilink2" title="现货" rel="nofollow">现货</a>在同一时期往往可能出现不同的<a href="/doku.php?id=%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC" class="wikilink2" title="价格" rel="nofollow">价格</a>。
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<h2 class="page-header">现货价格与股指期货价格关系</h2>
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<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E6%8C%87%E6%9C%9F%E8%B4%A7%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC" class="wikilink2" title="股指期货价格" rel="nofollow">股指期货价格</a>总是以自己<a href="/doku.php?id=%E6%A0%87%E7%9A%84%E7%89%A9" class="wikilink2" title="标的物" rel="nofollow">标的物</a>的<a href="/doku.php?id=%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7" class="wikilink2" title="现货" rel="nofollow">现货</a>价格为基础的,不可能出现与<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E6%8C%87%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC" class="wikilink2" title="股指现货价格" rel="nofollow">股指现货价格</a>完全脱节的情况:在股指期货价格高于股指现货价格的正向市场上,股指期货价格最终会下降到股指现货价格的水平,或者,股指现货价格最终会上升到股指期货价格的水平,二者合二为一。这是因为<a href="/doku.php?id=%E6%8C%81%E6%9C%89%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC" class="wikilink2" title="持有成本" rel="nofollow">持有成本</a>的下降和在<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E7%A5%A8%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7" class="wikilink2" title="股票现货" rel="nofollow">股票现货</a>市场与<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E6%8C%87%E6%9C%9F%E8%B4%A7" class="wikilink2" title="股指期货" rel="nofollow">股指期货</a>市场间存在着大量的<a href="/doku.php?id=%E5%A5%97%E5%88%A9" class="wikilink1" title="套利">套利</a>行为。　假如在<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E6%8C%87%E6%9C%9F%E8%B4%A7%E5%90%88%E7%BA%A6" class="wikilink2" title="股指期货合约" rel="nofollow">股指期货合约</a>成交后<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E7%A5%A8%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7" class="wikilink2" title="股票现货" rel="nofollow">股票现货</a>市场<a href="/doku.php?id=%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC" class="wikilink2" title="价格" rel="nofollow">价格</a>下跌,并一直持续到交割月,股指期货合约价格也会随之下跌,并且下降幅度至少和股指<a href="/doku.php?id=%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7" class="wikilink2" title="现货" rel="nofollow">现货</a><a href="/doku.php?id=%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC" class="wikilink2" title="价格" rel="nofollow">价格</a>的降幅一致。否则,即在<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E6%8C%87%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7" class="wikilink2" title="股指现货" rel="nofollow">股指现货</a>价格下降时,<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E6%8C%87%E6%9C%9F%E8%B4%A7%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC" class="wikilink2" title="股指期货价格" rel="nofollow">股指期货价格</a>虽然下降,但幅度小于股指现货价格的降幅,那么股指期<a href="/doku.php?id=%E7%8E%B0%E4%BB%B7" class="wikilink2" title="现价" rel="nofollow">现价</a>差就会大于<a href="/doku.php?id=%E6%8C%81%E6%9C%89%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC" class="wikilink2" title="持有成本" rel="nofollow">持有成本</a>,<a href="/doku.php?id=%E5%A5%97%E5%88%A9%E8%80%85" class="wikilink2" title="套利者" rel="nofollow">套利者</a>就会在股指期货市场上卖出期货<a href="/doku.php?id=%E5%90%88%E7%BA%A6" class="wikilink2" title="合约" rel="nofollow">合约</a>,同时在<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E6%8C%87%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7" class="wikilink2" title="股指现货" rel="nofollow">股指现货</a>市场上买入现货股票并持有到期货合约的<a href="/doku.php?id=%E4%BA%A4%E5%89%B2%E6%9C%88%E4%BB%BD" class="wikilink2" title="交割月份" rel="nofollow">交割月份</a>卖出,这种套利活动会持续到股指期货<a href="/doku.php?id=%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC" class="wikilink2" title="价格" rel="nofollow">价格</a>随现货<a href="/doku.php?id=%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC" class="wikilink2" title="价格" rel="nofollow">价格</a>的下跌而下跌,降幅至少与股指现货<a href="/doku.php?id=%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC" class="wikilink2" title="价格" rel="nofollow">价格</a>下降相同为止。由此可以得出一个一般性结论:在正向市场上,如果<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E6%8C%87%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7" class="wikilink2" title="股指现货" rel="nofollow">股指现货</a>价格下降,<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E6%8C%87%E6%9C%9F%E8%B4%A7%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC" class="wikilink2" title="股指期货价格" rel="nofollow">股指期货价格</a>也下降,而且因为<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E6%8C%87%E6%9C%9F%E8%B4%A7%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC" class="wikilink2" title="股指期货价格" rel="nofollow">股指期货价格</a>原本比股指现货价格高,所以降幅更大,直到<a href="/doku.php?id=%E4%BA%A4%E5%89%B2%E6%9C%88%E4%BB%BD" class="wikilink2" title="交割月份" rel="nofollow">交割月份</a>股指期货价格与股指现货价格收敛一致。同样,在正向市场上,如果<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E7%A5%A8%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7" class="wikilink2" title="股票现货" rel="nofollow">股票现货</a>价格上升,<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E6%8C%87%E6%9C%9F%E8%B4%A7%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC" class="wikilink2" title="股指期货价格" rel="nofollow">股指期货价格</a>也上升,但升幅小于现货价格,到<a href="/doku.php?id=%E4%BA%A4%E5%89%B2%E6%9C%88%E4%BB%BD" class="wikilink2" title="交割月份" rel="nofollow">交割月份</a>股指期货价格与<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E6%8C%87%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7" class="wikilink2" title="股指现货" rel="nofollow">股指现货</a>价格合二为一。若<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E6%8C%87%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7" class="wikilink2" title="股指现货" rel="nofollow">股指现货</a>价格高于股指期货价格,这时<a href="/doku.php?id=%E4%BA%A4%E5%89%B2%E6%9C%88%E4%BB%BD" class="wikilink2" title="交割月份" rel="nofollow">交割月份</a>较近的<a href="/doku.php?id=%E5%90%88%E7%BA%A6%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC" class="wikilink2" title="合约价格" rel="nofollow">合约价格</a>高于交割月份较远的<a href="/doku.php?id=%E5%90%88%E7%BA%A6" class="wikilink2" title="合约" rel="nofollow">合约</a>价格。我们把这种市场称作逆转市场或<a href="/doku.php?id=%E5%8F%8D%E5%90%91%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA" class="wikilink2" title="反向市场" rel="nofollow">反向市场</a>。之所以出现这种市场是因为近期对<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E7%A5%A8%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7" class="wikilink2" title="股票现货" rel="nofollow">股票现货</a>的需求非常迫切,远大于近期<a href="/doku.php?id=%E4%BE%9B%E7%BB%99%E9%87%8F" class="wikilink2" title="供给量" rel="nofollow">供给量</a>;同时预计将来<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E7%A5%A8%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7" class="wikilink2" title="股票现货" rel="nofollow">股票现货</a>的供给会大幅度增加;总之,<a href="/doku.php?id=%E5%8F%8D%E5%90%91%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA" class="wikilink2" title="反向市场" rel="nofollow">反向市场</a>的出现是由于人们对股票<a href="/doku.php?id=%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7%E5%95%86%E5%93%81" class="wikilink2" title="现货商品" rel="nofollow">现货商品</a>的需求过于迫切,股票<a href="/doku.php?id=%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7" class="wikilink2" title="现货" rel="nofollow">现货</a><a href="/doku.php?id=%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC" class="wikilink2" title="价格" rel="nofollow">价格</a>再高也在所不惜,从而造成股票现货价格剧升。这种<a href="/doku.php?id=%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC" class="wikilink2" title="价格" rel="nofollow">价格</a>关系并非意味着持有现货没有<a href="/doku.php?id=%E6%8C%81%E6%9C%89%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC" class="wikilink2" title="持有成本" rel="nofollow">持有成本</a>的<a href="/doku.php?id=%E6%94%AF%E5%87%BA" class="wikilink2" title="支出" rel="nofollow">支出</a>,只要持有现货并<a href="/doku.php?id=%E5%82%A8%E5%AD%98" class="wikilink2" title="储存" rel="nofollow">储存</a>到未来某一时期,<a href="/doku.php?id=%E6%8C%81%E6%9C%89%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC" class="wikilink2" title="持有成本" rel="nofollow">持有成本</a>的支出是必不可少的。只不过在<a href="/doku.php?id=%E5%8F%8D%E5%90%91%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA" class="wikilink2" title="反向市场" rel="nofollow">反向市场</a>上,由于市场对<a href="/doku.php?id=%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7" class="wikilink2" title="现货" rel="nofollow">现货</a>及近期<a href="/doku.php?id=%E6%9C%9F%E8%B4%A7" class="wikilink1" title="期货">期货</a>需求迫切,购买者愿意承担、吸收全部<a href="/doku.php?id=%E6%8C%81%E6%9C%89%E6%88%90%E6%9C%AC" class="wikilink2" title="持有成本" rel="nofollow">持有成本</a>而已;在反向市场上,随着时间的推进,<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E6%8C%87%E7%8E%B0%E8%B4%A7" class="wikilink2" title="股指现货" rel="nofollow">股指现货</a><a href="/doku.php?id=%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC" class="wikilink2" title="价格" rel="nofollow">价格</a>与<a href="/doku.php?id=%E8%82%A1%E6%8C%87%E6%9C%9F%E8%B4%A7%E4%BB%B7%E6%A0%BC" class="wikilink2" title="股指期货价格" rel="nofollow">股指期货价格</a>如同在正向市场上一样,会逐步接近趋同,到<a href="/doku.php?id=%E4%BA%A4%E5%89%B2%E6%9C%88%E4%BB%BD" class="wikilink2" title="交割月份" rel="nofollow">交割月份</a>收敛一致。
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